MAINS Current Affairs includes  Declining Fertility Rate in India and Concerns & National Food Security (Amendment) Bill, 2026

GOVERNANCE

1. Declining Fertility Rate in India and Concerns

Context: According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 and the global average of 2.2.

• The decline reflects India’s transition to a low-fertility society, bringing new demographic and socio-economic challenges.

Key Findings of SRS Report 2024

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• TFR: Average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (15–49 years).
• Replacement Level Fertility: 2.1 children per woman, required to maintain a stable population (without migration).

Current Scenario

• India’s TFR declined from 3 (1985) to 1.9 (2024).
• Fertility has fallen steadily by about 06 per year.
• At the present pace, TFR may decline below 6 by 2031.
• The only states in India with a TFR higher than 2.1 in 2024were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2,followed by Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal at 1.3 each.
• The southern states have always had TFRs well below the national average. This has gone down further in the last two decades.

Reasons for Declining Fertility

1. Delayed Marriage & Parenthood

• Rising age at marriage.
• Career priorities and higher education delay childbirth.
• Couples increasingly choose smaller families.

2. Urbanisation

• High housing, education, healthcare and childcare costs.
• Smaller living spaces.
• Lifestyle changes favour fewer children.

3. Better Family Planning

• Greater availability of contraceptives.
• Improved reproductive healthcare.
• Couples can better plan the number and spacing of children.

4. Declining Infant Mortality

• Better healthcare, nutrition, immunisation and sanitation.
• Reduced need for larger families as child survival has improved.

5. Rising Cost of Child Rearing

• Education and healthcare expenses have increased sharply.
• Families prefer investing more resources in fewer children.

6. Demographic Transition

• India has entered the later stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM).
• Characterised by:
• Low birth rates.
• Low death rates.
• Slower population growth.
• Gradual population ageing.

Major Concerns

• Difference Between India and Other Countries:Western Europe and Japan aged after they had industrialised, brought a large share of workers into formal employment, widened their tax systems, and built welfare institutions with some capacity for risk-pooling. 
• Even then, ageing strained public finances; Japan saw the burden push public debt above 200% of GDP.
• India enters the same demographic passage on a weaker institutional and fiscal base, its per-capita income is around $2,800 and its direct tax base remains narrow.
• State governments,tasked with much of the social-sector response, are already fiscally stretched.
• Informal Employment: Most workers spend their lives in informal or semi-formal work,old-age income security remains largely outside formal employment contracts.
• A contribution-based pension system works best when earnings are predictable, employment is formal, and workers can save regularly over decades.
• Existing Public Safety Nets: The Atal Pension Yojana assumes sustained contributions across one’s working life, which is difficult for informal workers with volatile incomes.
• The old-age pension under the National Social Assistance Programme remains ₹200 a month for those aged 60 to 79 and ₹500 for those above 80. Such support does not protect the elderly from dependence.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Fertility rates vary significantly across states, most southern and western states have well below replacement fertility, while states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan continue to record relatively higher fertility levels.
• This may alter the internal migration patterns, political representation, resource allocation and labour market dynamics.

Government Initiatives

• State-Level Population Policies: Andhra Pradesh’s Population Management Policy (2026) provides cash incentives for second, third and fourth children, free education support, fertility clinics, and improved maternal healthcare.
• Sikkim has introduced measures such as extended maternity and paternity leave and support for IVF treatment to address declining fertility.
• Infertility Support Programmes: The Jiyo Parsi Scheme provides financial assistance for infertility treatment, child-care support, and awareness campaigns to arrest the decline of the Parsi population.
• Maternal and Child Health Schemes: Programmes under the National Health Mission (NHM) improve maternal and child health, reduce infant mortality, and create conditions that support family formation and childbearing.
• Schemes like Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provide maternity benefits to pregnant and lactating women.
• Mission Shakti: Umbrella programme for women empowerment and safety.
• It includes schemes supporting childcare services and economic empowerment of women.
• Palna Scheme (National Crèche Scheme): It provides day-care facilities for children aged 6 months to 6 years.
• It offers nutrition, health care, and early learning support, helping mothers participate in the workforce.
• Atal Vayo Abhyudaya Yojana (AVYAY): AVYAY brings together articulation of each of the current schemes, future plans, strategies and targets and maps it with schemes/programmes, accountabilities, financials and clear outcomes.
• This Plan takes care of the top four needs of the senior citizens viz financial security, food, health care and human interaction /life of dignity.
• It also includes the facets of safety/protection and general wellbeing of the elderly beginning from awareness generation and sensitization of the society.
• Scheme of Integrated Programme for Senior Citizens (IPSrC): Setting up of Homes to improve the quality of life of the Senior Citizens, especially indigent senior citizens by providing basic amenities like shelter, food, medical care and entertainment opportunities.
• Promoting Silver Economy:It has an objective to encourage the entrepreneurs to think about the problems of the elderly and come out with innovative solutions.
• The Government aims to achieve the objective by providing upto Rs. 1 crore as financial assistance through equity participation, through an open invitation on a portal namely Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine (SAGE).

State Population Policies

Andhra Pradesh Population Management Policy (2026)

• Cash incentives for second, third and fourth child.
• Fertility clinics.
• Maternal healthcare support.
• Free education incentives.

Sikkim

• IVF support.
• Extended maternity and paternity leave.
• Measures to encourage childbirth.

Jiyo Parsi Scheme

• Financial support for infertility treatment.
• Childcare assistance.
• Awareness campaigns to increase Parsi population.

National Health Mission (NHM)

• Improves maternal and child healthcare.
• Reduces infant mortality.
• Supports reproductive health services.

Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY)

• Maternity benefits for pregnant and lactating women.
• Promotes maternal nutrition and safe motherhood.

Mission Shakti

• Women’s empowerment and safety.
• Supports childcare and women’s economic participation.

Palna Scheme (National Crèche Scheme)

• Day-care facilities for children (6 months–6 years).
• Nutrition, healthcare and early childhood education.
• Enables mothers to participate in the workforce.

Atal Vayo Abhyudaya Yojana (AVYAY)

• Comprehensive welfare programme for senior citizens.
• Focus areas:
  • Financial security.
  • Dignified ageing.
  • Social inclusion.

Integrated Programme for Senior Citizens (IPSrC)

• Establishes old-age homes.
• Provides:
  • Recreational facilities.

SAGE (Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine)

• Promotes the Silver Economy.
• Supports startups working on elderly care.
• Financial assistance up to ₹1 crore.

Way Ahead

• Adopt a Balanced Population Policy: Shift from a sole focus on population control to a demographic strategy that balances population stabilization with concerns over declining fertility.
• Strengthen Family Support Measures: Provide affordable childcare, parental leave, and flexible work arrangements for young couples.
• Expand Fertility and Reproductive Healthcare: Improve access to infertility treatment, assisted reproductive technologies (ART), and reproductive health services, especially in smaller cities and rural areas.
• Promote Gender Equality: Encourage greater sharing of caregiving responsibilities and enhance women’s workforce participation through supportive workplace policies.
• Focus on State-Specific Interventions: Tailor policies to regional demographic trends, as fertility levels vary significantly across states.
• Invest in Human Capital: Alongside fertility measures, improve education, healthcare, and skill development to maximize the benefits of India’s demographic transition.

Conclusion

India’s declining fertility marks an important demographic transition. While lower fertility reflects improvements in health, education and living standards, rapid ageing, inadequate social security, regional imbalances and shrinking workforce pose significant challenges. A balanced population policy combined with stronger healthcare, family support, pension reforms and human capital investment is essential to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

GOVERNANCE

2. National Food Security (Amendment) Bill, 2026

Context: The Union Food and Public Distribution Department has released the draft National Food Security (Amendment) Bill, 2026 proposing changes to the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013.

National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013

Objective

• Ensure food and nutritional security through the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS).
• Covers:
  • 75% of rural population
  • 50% of urban population
• Based on Census 2011, covering about 35 crore beneficiaries.
• Provides subsidised/free foodgrains to eligible households.

Beneficiary Categories

1. Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY)

• Poorest of the poor households
• Existing Entitlement
• 35 kg foodgrains per household per month

Eligible Categories

• Widows, elderly (60+), disabled, terminally ill with no support.
• Single men/women without livelihood.
• Primitive Tribal Groups (PTGs).
• Landless agricultural labourers.
• Marginal farmers.
• Rural artisans and craftsmen.
• Slum dwellers.
• Informal sector workers.
• BPL families with HIV-positive members.

2. Priority Households (PHH)

• Identified by States/UTs.
• 5 kg foodgrains per person per month.

Merger With PMGKAY

• During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the government launched the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY),under which additional foodgrains were provided free of cost.
• From January 2023, the government merged PMGKAY with NFSA and made the regular NFSA entitlement itself free of cost.
• In November 2023, this free foodgrain scheme was extended for five years (January 2024 to December 2028).

Proposed Amendments (2026)

New Provision for AAY Households

Earlier

• 35 kg per household, irrespective of family size.

Proposed

• 7 kg foodgrains per person per month
• Subject to a maximum of 35 kg per household.
• Foodgrains will continue to be free of cost.

Rationale Behind Amendment

• Remove imbalance where:
• Small families received higher per capita
• Larger families received lower per capita
• Make allocation more equitable within AAY households.

What are the Concerns?

• Inadequate Nutritional Security: The amendment focuses exclusively on cereals and does not include pulses, edible oils, or other nutrient-rich foods.
• Demand for Higher Entitlement:Right to Food activists have demanded 14 kg of foodgrains per person instead of 7 kg, particularly for the poorest households.
• Disadvantage to Large Families: The amendment retains the ceiling of 35 kg per household. As a result, larger households would continue to receive lower per-capita allocations than intended.
• Regional Disparities: Smaller households, which are more common in southern States, may receive lower foodgrain allocations than under the existing system.
• Outdated Coverage: The coverage of the National Food Security Act continues to be based on the 2011 Census despite significant population growth. Millions of eligible households are estimated to remain outside the ambit of the Public Distribution System.
• Implementation Challenges:The amendment does not address operational issues affecting the Public Distribution System.
• Biometric authentication failures, e-KYC-related exclusions, connectivity issues,and difficulties faced by migrant workers, elderly persons, and persons with disabilities continue to prevent eligible beneficiaries from accessing their foodgrain entitlements.

Way Ahead

• Update NFSA beneficiary coverage using the latest Census data to reflect current demographic realities.
• There is a need to ensure that no existing beneficiary experiences food insecurity due to the transition.
• Consider supplementing cereals with pulses, edible oil, and fortified foodsto improve nutritional security.
• There is a need for consultations with States to build consensus and strengthen cooperative federalismbefore finalising the amendment.

Conclusion

The National Food Security (Amendment) Bill, 2026 seeks to make AAY foodgrain distribution more equitable through per-person allocation. However, issues such as nutritional adequacy, outdated beneficiary coverage, continued disadvantage to large families, and implementation challenges must be addressed to make India’s food security framework more inclusive and effective.

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