MAINS Current Affairs includes Five Weather Systems Impacting Indian Monsoon & Is India Producing More Graduates than the Economy Can Absorb?

GEOGRAPHY

1. Five Weather Systems Impacting Indian Monsoon

Context: India’s Southwest Monsoon remained weak, with multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors suppressing rainfall.

• India recorded around 38% rainfall deficit (June 1–17), with Central India facing nearly 62% deficit.
• The five major rain-influencing factors are:

1. El Niño conditions
2. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
3. Westerly winds/Western Disturbances
4. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
5. Somali Jet

Southwest Monsoon

• The Southwest Monsoon is a seasonal wind system that brings moisture from the Indian Ocean and provides the majority of India’s annual rainfall.
• It generally begins in June, lasts till September, and starts withdrawing from northwest India around October.
• The Northeast Monsoon (Oct–Dec) provides rainfall mainly to southern India, especially Tamil Nadu.

Factors Affecting Indian Monsoon

1. El Niño

What is it?

• El Niño is the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm waters move eastwards towards South America.

Impact on Indian Monsoon

• Weakens monsoon circulation.
• Reduces rainfall over India.
• Increases chances of drought conditions.
• Raises global temperatures and extreme weather events.

2. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

What is it?

• MJO is an eastward-moving system of clouds, winds, rainfall, and pressure near the equator.
• It completes one cycle around the globe in about 30–60 days.

Impact on Monsoon

• Active MJO phase: Enhances cloud formation, convection, cyclones, and rainfall.
• Weak MJO phase: Suppresses rainfall and slows monsoon progress.

3. Western Disturbances / Westerly Winds

What are Western Disturbances?

• Extra-tropical weather systems originating near the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea.
• They move west to east under the influence of the subtropical westerly jet stream.

Impact

• Bring winter rainfall and snowfall in northern India.
• During monsoon season, strong dry westerly winds can disturb moisture flow and reduce rainfall activity.

4. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

What is it?

• Discovered by H. Saji in 1999.
• It refers to differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

Phases

Positive IOD

• Western Indian Ocean becomes warmer.
• Strengthens monsoon winds and increases rainfall over India.

Negative IOD

• Eastern Indian Ocean becomes warmer.
• Weakens Indian monsoon rainfall.

Neutral IOD

• No significant temperature difference; limited influence on monsoon.

5. Somali Jet

What is it?

• A strong cross-equatorial wind system originating near Mauritius and Madagascar.
• It crosses the equator and flows along the eastern coast of Africa through Somalia towards India.

Role in Monsoon

• Carries moisture from the Arabian Sea.
• Reaches India’s west coast by June.
• A stronger Somali Jet results in heavier rainfall over Peninsular India.

Conclusion

Indian monsoon depends on complex interactions between oceanic and atmospheric systems. Phenomena like El Niño, weak MJO, neutral IOD, and weak Somali Jet can suppress rainfall, highlighting the need for better climate prediction and adaptive water management.

ECONOMY

2. Is India Producing More Graduates than the Economy Can Absorb?

Context: India’s higher education enrolment increased from 3.42 crore (2014-15) to 4.46 crore (2022-23).

• However, nearly one-third of graduates remain unemployed, raising concerns about the mismatch between education expansion and employment generation.

Current Scenario

• Rapid expansion of universities and colleges has increased the supply of graduates.
• However, job creation has not grown at the same pace, especially in sectors traditionally absorbing educated youth.
• The challenge is not only the number of graduates, but the mismatch between skills produced and skills demanded by the economy.

Challenges Faced by Graduates

Slow Job Creation

• Economic growth has not generated sufficient graduate-level employment, especially in labour-intensive sectors.

Decline in IT Sector Absorption

• The IT sector, once a major employer of engineering graduates, has slowed hiring due to automation, AI adoption, and changing business models.

Capital-Intensive Growth

• Investments in sectors like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing require high capital and technology but create relatively fewer jobs.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence

• AI is replacing routine cognitive tasks, increasing demand for workers skilled in AI use, problem-solving, and analytical abilities.

Automation in Manufacturing

• Robotics and Industry 4.0 technologies have reduced traditional supervisory and operational roles previously filled by engineers.

Skill Mismatch

• Many graduates possess degrees but lack industry-relevant skills, practical exposure, and digital competencies.

Government Initiatives

National Education Policy (NEP), 2020

• Promotes multidisciplinary education, skill-based learning, flexibility, and industry-oriented education.

National Credit Framework (NCrF)

• Allows students to combine academic, vocational, and experiential learning credits.

APAAR ID

• Creates a lifelong digital academic record by storing academic and skill-based achievements.

Digital Learning Platforms

• SWAYAM, SWAYAM PRABHA, PM e-VIDYA and DIKSHA expand access to online courses and digital education.

Atal Innovation Mission

• Established over 10,000 Atal Tinkering Labs to promote innovation and technology skills among students.

National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme (NAPS)

• Promotes an “earn while you learn” model by providing industry-based apprenticeship opportunities.

Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs)

• Provide vocational and technical training aligned with industrial requirements.

SOAR (Skilling for AI Readiness), 2025

• Provides foundational AI skills to students and trains educators for AI-based learning.

Prime Minister Internship Scheme (PMIS), 2024

• Provides paid internships to bridge the gap between classroom learning and workplace requirements.

Skill India Digital Hub (SIDH), 2023

• Integrates skilling, employment, apprenticeship, and entrepreneurship opportunities on a single platform.

Way Forward

Strengthen Industry-Academia Linkages

• Universities must design courses based on changing industry and technological needs.

Increase R&D Investment

• Greater focus on research, innovation, and deep technology is needed for high-value job creation.

Promote Entrepreneurship

• Encourage startups and innovation ecosystems to shift youth from job seekers to job creators.

Build Future Skills

• Focus on AI, robotics, data science, green technologies, defence, and aerospace sectors.

Expand Manufacturing Capacity

• Strengthen indigenous design, engineering, and advanced manufacturing capabilities.

Conclusion

India’s challenge is not merely producing too many graduates but ensuring that graduates possess future-ready skills aligned with economic needs.

A stronger link between education, industry, innovation, and employment policies is essential to convert India’s demographic dividend into economic growth.

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