MAINS Current Affairs includes Governor’s Role in a Hung Assembly & AMOC Slowdown and Its Implications

POLITY AND GOVERNANCE

1. Governor’s Role in a Hung Assembly

Context: The 2026 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu resulted in a hung Assembly, with TVK emerging as the single largest party but falling short of the majority mark in the 234-member House.

What is a Hung Assembly?

• A hung Assembly arises when no political party or alliance secures a clear majority in the legislature.
• This situation often leads to coalition negotiations and support from smaller parties or independents.
• In such circumstances, the Governor becomes the key constitutional authority responsible for initiating government formation.

Constitutional Provisions

Article 163

• The Governor normally acts on the advice of the Council of Ministers, except in matters where the Constitution permits discretionary powers.

Article 164(1)

• The Governor appoints the Chief Minister and the Council of Ministers.
• In a hung Assembly, the Governor exercises discretion in deciding whom to invite to form the government.

Article 163(2)

• If a dispute arises regarding the Governor’s discretionary powers, the Governor’s decision is considered final.

Role of the Governor in a Hung Assembly

Invitation to Form Government

• The Governor invites the party or alliance most likely to command majority support in the Assembly.

Oath and Government Formation

• The Governor administers the oath to the Chief Minister-designate and the Council of Ministers.

Appointment of Pro-tem Speaker

• A pro-tem Speaker, generally the senior-most MLA, is appointed to:
  • Administer oath to newly elected MLAs
  • Conduct the floor test

Floor Test

• A floor test (trust vote) is conducted to determine whether the government enjoys the confidence of the House.
• It is regarded as the most legitimate method to verify majority support.

Recommendation of President’s Rule

• If no party or coalition is able to form a stable government, the Governor may recommend President’s Rule under Article 356.

Important Committees & Recommendations

Sarkaria Commission (1983)

It suggested the following order of preference for inviting a party to form government:

1. Pre-poll alliance with majority
2. Single largest party with support of others, including independents
3. Post-poll coalition where all partners join government
4. Post-poll alliance with outside support

• It emphasized that a party with an absolute majority should automatically be invited to form the government.

Punchhi Commission (2007)

• Broadly supported the Sarkaria recommendations.
• Emphasised:
  • Constitutional neutrality of Governors
  • Avoidance of partisan conduct
  • Early floor tests to determine majority
• Also stated that pre-poll alliances should receive preference over post-poll coalitions.

Important Supreme Court Judgments

1. R. Bommai v. Union of India

• The Supreme Court held that majority should be tested on the floor of the House, not determined subjectively by the Governor.

Rameshwar Prasad v. Union of India

• The Court warned against premature dissolution of Assemblies and stressed giving political parties a fair opportunity to form government.

Uttarakhand Floor Test Case (2016)

• The Supreme Court reiterated that the floor test is the ultimate constitutional method to establish majority support.

Issues & Concerns

Possibility of Partisan Conduct

• Governors are sometimes accused of favouring particular political parties.

Delay in Floor Test

• Delayed trust votes may encourage defections and political instability.

Misuse of Discretionary Powers

• Subjective interpretation of “majority support” may undermine constitutional morality.

Conclusion

• In a hung Assembly, the Governor plays a crucial constitutional role in ensuring stable government formation while upholding democratic principles.
• Supreme Court judgments and commission recommendations consistently stress that the floor test remains the most reliable and constitutional method to determine majority support.
• The Governor must therefore act with neutrality, transparency, and adherence to constitutional conventions.

ENVIRONMENT 

2. AMOC Slowdown and Its Implications

Context: Recent scientific studies suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by nearly 59% by 2100 due to climate change and rapid melting of Arctic ice.

What is AMOC?

• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major system of ocean currents responsible for transferring heat across the globe.

How It Works

• Warm, salty surface water moves northward through currents such as the Gulf Stream.
• In the North Atlantic, this water cools, becomes denser, sinks, and flows southward at deeper ocean levels.
• AMOC is often described as a global ocean conveyor belt because it redistributes heat and regulates climate systems worldwide.

Importance of AMOC

AMOC influences:

• Europe’s relatively mild climate
• African and South Asian rainfall systems
• Indian monsoon circulation
• Marine ecosystems
• Global heat distribution and climate balance

Why is AMOC Weakening?

Role of Climate Change

• Human-induced global warming is accelerating the melting of:
  • Arctic sea ice
  • Greenland ice sheet
• This releases large amounts of freshwater into the North Atlantic.

Impact of Freshwater

• Freshwater is less salty and less dense, making it harder to sink.
• This weakens the sinking process that drives AMOC circulation.

AMOC as a Climate Tipping Point

• A tipping point refers to a threshold beyond which a system undergoes irreversible change.
• Scientists warn that if AMOC weakens beyond a critical level, it could enter a permanently weakened state, even if global temperatures later stabilize.
• Studies indicate that AMOC has already weakened by nearly 15% over the last five decades.

Global Consequences of AMOC Slowdown

Climate Instability

• Increased frequency of extreme weather events

Regional Cooling

• Colder conditions in parts of Europe despite overall global warming

Sea-Level Rise

• Rise in sea levels along the eastern coast of North America

Disruption of Rainfall Systems

• Alteration of tropical rainfall patterns and global precipitation cycles

Connection Between AMOC and El Niño

• Although AMOC operates in the Atlantic Ocean, it strongly influences Pacific climate systems.

Mechanism

• A weaker AMOC changes global heat distribution and atmospheric circulation.
• This can intensify and destabilize El Niño

Impact of Strong El Niño

Recent El Niño episodes (2015–16 and 2023–24) caused:

• Droughts
• Floods
• Heat waves
• Agricultural losses
• In India, El Niño generally weakens the southwest monsoon.

Why AMOC Matters for India

Threat to Indian Monsoon

• India’s monsoon depends on global heat circulation and land-sea temperature differences.
• A weakened AMOC may shift tropical rainfall belts southward, reducing moisture flow toward the Indian subcontinent.

Monsoon Disruptions

Possible impacts include:

• Weak monsoon winds
• Reduced Arabian Sea moisture transport
• Delayed or deficient rainfall

Agricultural Impacts

• Nearly half of India’s population depends on agriculture, much of it rain-fed.
• Weak monsoons can result in:
  • Lower crop productivity
  • Farmer distress
  • Food security concerns

Water Stress

• India already faces groundwater depletion and uneven rainfall distribution.
• Reduced monsoon rainfall may intensify:
  • Drinking water shortages
  • Irrigation stress
  • Urban water crises

Increase in Extreme Events

• A destabilized climate system may lead to:
  • Flash floods
  • Droughts
  • Heat waves
  • Erratic rainfall patterns

Government and Scientific Responses

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

• Includes missions related to:
  • Water conservation
  • Sustainable agriculture
  • Himalayan ecosystem protection

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

• Strengthening climate modelling and monsoon forecasting systems
• Improving early warning mechanisms

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)

• Focuses on:
  • Flood preparedness
  • Drought management
  • Climate adaptation planning

Conclusion

• The weakening of AMOC represents a major climate risk with potentially far-reaching consequences for global weather systems and India’s monsoon-dependent economy.
• Strengthening climate resilience, improving forecasting systems, and promoting sustainable environmental policies will be crucial for mitigating future risks.

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