MAINS Current Affairs includes India–Israel Relations: Bilateral Ties and the Situation in West Asia & Emissions Gap Report 2026

Economy

1. Understanding the Economics of Social Unrest

Context: Protests across several European countries have highlighted the economic factors underlying social unrest and the consequences of persistent socioeconomic grievances.

• Countries witnessing public protests include France, Albania, Belgium, Italy and Portugal.
• Rising economic inequality is often considered an important factor contributing to social discontent.
• Major triggers include:
  • Rising fuel prices.
  • Dissatisfaction with the quality of public schools.
  • Declining public services.
  • A growing housing crisis.

Understanding the Income Gap

• The income gap is a measure used to assess the disparity between the average income of different sections of a population. A higher ratio indicates greater income inequality.

Top 10% to Bottom 50% Income Gap

• According to the World Inequality Report 2026, the top 10% to bottom 50% average income gap is measured by comparing the income share of the richest 10% with that of the poorest 50%.

Trends Across Countries

• France: The income gap increased between 2014 and 2024.
• Italy: The income gap also increased during this period.
• United Kingdom, Germany and Spain: The income gap declined over the same period.
• France compared with Germany: Despite the increase, France’s income gap remains among the lowest compared with some of its peers, including Germany, according to the supplied source.
• India: The reported income-gap ratio is 38.
• South Africa: The reported ratio is 118.

These figures illustrate differences in income distribution across countries. However, income inequality alone does not explain every instance of social unrest; public-service quality, living costs and other socioeconomic conditions also matter.

Economic Consequences of Social Unrest

Reduction in Economic Growth

• According to an IMF economist, major unrest events are followed, on average, by a one-percentage-point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event.
• Unrest driven by socioeconomic grievances is associated with sharper GDP contractions than unrest motivated primarily by political factors.

Disruption of Economic Activities

• Protests, strikes and road blockades can interrupt production, transportation, trade and supply chains.
• Such disruptions delay business operations, reduce productivity and cause economic losses.

Decline in Investment

• Social and political instability increases uncertainty for businesses.
• Domestic and foreign investors may postpone or cancel investment decisions.
• Delayed projects can affect employment generation and long-term productive capacity.

Inflationary Pressures

• Disruptions to the supply of essential commodities can create shortages and push prices upwards.
• Rising prices disproportionately affect low-income households because a larger share of their income is spent on essential goods and services.

Decline in Tourism and Trade

• Prolonged unrest can damage a region’s reputation as a safe destination.
• Lower tourist arrivals can reduce revenues for hotels, restaurants, transport operators and local businesses.
• Trade may also suffer because of disrupted logistics and reduced business confidence.

Pressure on Government Finances

• Governments may need to increase spending on law enforcement, compensation, reconstruction and rehabilitation.
• These additional expenditures can divert public resources from infrastructure, education, healthcare and other developmental priorities.

Way Forward

Promote inclusive economic growth

• Expand access to productive employment and economic opportunities.
• Address structural inequalities and reduce barriers to social mobility.
• Ensure that the benefits of economic growth reach different income groups.

Strengthen public services

• Improve the quality and accessibility of public education, healthcare and essential services.
• Address housing affordability and the burden of rising living costs.
• Improve the delivery of services to vulnerable and low-income households.

Adopt responsive governance

• Establish effective mechanisms for public consultation and grievance redressal.
• Respond to legitimate public concerns before they escalate into prolonged unrest.
• Improve transparency and accountability in public institutions.

Protect economic activity while respecting peaceful protest

• Minimise avoidable disruptions to essential services and supply chains.
• Facilitate peaceful demonstrations and constructive dialogue.
• Use proportionate, lawful measures to manage public-order situations.

Strengthen social dialogue

• Encourage engagement among governments, workers, businesses and civil society.
• Use negotiation and peaceful conflict-resolution mechanisms to address competing interests.

Conclusion

Social unrest can impose substantial economic costs through lower growth, disrupted production, weaker investment and pressure on public finances. However, protests can also bring genuine grievances and structural inequalities to public attention. Sustainable economic stability requires addressing the underlying causes of discontent through inclusive growth, effective public services, responsive governance and peaceful conflict resolution.

Climatology

2. ‘Godzilla’ El Niño: Impact on India and the World

Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated that the developing El Niño event could intensify towards the end of 2026, with its effects potentially continuing into 2027.

An exceptionally strong El Niño could influence global temperatures, rainfall patterns, agricultural output and water availability, particularly in regions dependent on seasonal rainfall.

Understanding El Niño

• El Niño is the periodic warming of seawater in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Key Characteristics

• Rise in sea-surface temperatures: Temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than their long-term averages.
• Weakening of trade winds: The east-to-west winds blowing near the Equator weaken during El Niño.
• Global climatic influence: Changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation influence weather patterns across different parts of the world.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Pacific region.

What Is ‘Godzilla’ El Niño?

• The term ‘Godzilla’ El Niño is used to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event associated with unusually high Pacific Ocean temperatures.
• Such an event can intensify existing climatic disturbances and increase the risk of extreme weather in vulnerable regions.

How Do Scientists Measure El Niño’s Strength?

Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies

• Scientists monitor sea-surface temperatures in specific regions of the equatorial Pacific, particularly the Niño 3.4 region.
• These temperatures are compared with long-term averages to determine the extent of warming or cooling.

Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

• RONI measures the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region relative to average warming across the tropical oceans.
• According to the supplied source:
  • A three-month average RONI above +0.5°C indicates El Niño conditions.
  • A three-month average RONI below −0.5°C indicates La Niña conditions.

Duration and Atmospheric Conditions

• Scientists examine whether temperature anomalies persist over time.
• They also assess whether these anomalies are accompanied by characteristic changes in atmospheric circulation.
• In general, a larger positive temperature anomaly indicates a stronger El Niño signal, although atmospheric conditions and the duration of the event also matter.

Impact of El Niño on India

Weakening of the Southwest Monsoon

• El Niño can weaken India’s southwest monsoon, which contributes approximately 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.
• The supplied report states that the 2026 monsoon ended at 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Agricultural Losses

• Reduced rainfall and higher temperatures can adversely affect crop growth and productivity.
• Farmers may need additional irrigation, increasing cultivation costs.
• Rainfall-sensitive crops are particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.

Water Distress

• Lower rainfall, combined with greater evaporation, can reduce reservoir storage and groundwater availability.
• This can affect drinking-water supplies, irrigation and other water-dependent activities.

Food Inflation

• Lower agricultural output can reduce the supply of food commodities and push prices upwards.
• Low-income households are particularly vulnerable because food constitutes a significant share of their expenditure.

Warmer Winters and Rabi Crops

• Above-normal winter temperatures can affect rabi crops, especially wheat.
• Temperature-sensitive stages of crop development may be disrupted, potentially reducing yields.

Global Impact of a Strong El Niño

Northern Hemisphere

Temperature outlook

• Above-normal temperatures are likely across parts of:
  • Southern Europe and Africa.
  • The Arabian Peninsula.
  • The Indian subcontinent.
  • Eastern Asia.

Rainfall outlook

• Above-normal rainfall is likely over parts of:
  • The Arabian Peninsula.
  • Central and East Asia.
  • Coastal Southeast Asia.
  • North America.

Southern Hemisphere

Temperature outlook

• Higher-than-normal temperatures are likely across parts of:
  • Africa, particularly equatorial regions and the Greater Horn of Africa.
  • South America.

Rainfall outlook

• Many regions may experience weaker rainfall, particularly:
  • Southern Africa.
  • Southern Central America.
  • The Caribbean.

These are broad regional outlooks; actual impacts can vary by location and depend on the strength, timing and evolution of the El Niño event.

Way Forward

Strengthen Climate Forecasting

• Improve seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of ENSO conditions.
• Strengthen early-warning systems to provide timely information to farmers, governments and vulnerable communities.

Promote Climate-Resilient Agriculture

• Encourage water-conservation practices and efficient irrigation.
• Promote climate-resilient farming techniques to reduce dependence on uncertain rainfall.
• Improve preparedness for possible crop losses and agricultural stress.

Improve Water Management

• Strengthen rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge.
• Improve the efficient use of available water resources.
• Prepare contingency plans for water shortages in vulnerable regions.

Integrate Climate Resilience into Urban Planning

• Incorporate green infrastructure and heat-mitigation measures into urban development.
• Strengthen preparedness for heat stress and other climate-related risks.

Increase Public Awareness

• Educate communities about heat stress, water conservation and disaster preparedness.
• Improve communication of early warnings and practical response measures.

Strengthen International Cooperation

• Encourage the sharing of climate data, forecasting capabilities and technical expertise.
• Support coordinated responses to climate-related risks affecting agriculture, water resources and vulnerable populations.

Conclusion

An exceptionally strong El Niño could intensify climatic and economic vulnerabilities, particularly in countries that depend heavily on rainfall-based agriculture. Strengthening climate forecasting, resilient farming, water management, heat preparedness and international cooperation will be essential to reduce its potential impacts.

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