MAINS Current Affairs includes China’s Yarlung Zangbo Mega-Dam: Strategic and Ecological Concerns & Sea-level Rise is a Threat to Fundamental Human Rights: UN Report

Science and Technology/ Environment

Geography /International Relations

1. China’s Yarlung Zangbo Mega-Dam: Strategic and Ecological Concerns

Context: A devastating glacial collapse and flash floods near the Nepal–China border have renewed concerns regarding China’s proposed mega-dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River.

• The project has significant implications for downstream countries, particularly India and Bangladesh, because of the transboundary nature of the river.

Scale and Engineering

• The project is proposed near the spectacular ‘Great Bend’, where the Yarlung Zangbo turns sharply towards India.
• The project is estimated to have:
  • Installed capacity: Around 60 GW
  • Annual electricity generation: Around 300 billion kWh
  • Its annual generation could be more than three times that of the Three Gorges Dam.
• A reservoir is reportedly planned around Mainling, upstream of Nyingchi, although the project has been described as a run-of-the-river hydropower project.

Yarlung Tsangpo (Zangbo) River

• The Yarlung Tsangpo/Zangbo originates from the Chemayungdung Glacier in Tibet.
• After entering Arunachal Pradesh, it is known as the Siang.
• In Assam, after being joined by major tributaries such as the Dibang and Lohit, it is known as the Brahmaputra.
• The river subsequently enters Bangladesh and eventually drains into the Bay of Bengal.
• The river basin covers approximately 8 lakh sq. km, distributed among:
  • China – 50.5%
  • India – 33.3%
  • Bangladesh – 8.1%
  • Bhutan – 7.8%

Key Concerns of the Project

1. Ecological & Environmental Concerns

• Disaster Risk:
• The project is situated in the earthquake-prone Himalayan region, creating significant concerns regarding seismic hazards and dam safety.
• A major earthquake could have potentially serious consequences for downstream areas.
• ❖ Climate & Cascading Hazards:
• Construction in fragile permafrost and steep Himalayan terrain could interact with existing geological and climatic risks.
• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and other glacier-related hazards remain important concerns.
• Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall events, which could further intensify flood-related risks.
• Biodiversity:
• The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot.
• Large-scale dam construction may disturb sensitive ecosystems and affect biodiversity in the region.

2. Geopolitical Risks

• Water Control & Strategic Leverage:
• As the upper riparian, China can potentially influence the timing and volume of downstream flows.
• This raises concerns about:
  • Reduced discharge during the dry season.
  • Sudden releases during periods of high flow.
  • Greater strategic leverage over downstream water resources.
• Geopolitical Signalling:
• The project’s proximity to a sensitive and disputed border region could strengthen China’s physical and strategic presence in the area.
• India’s Vulnerability:
• The Brahmaputra is crucial to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and downstream Bangladesh.
• India currently lacks a binding water-sharing treaty with China governing the Brahmaputra.
• Competition over Water:
• The Brahmaputra basin involves the interests of China, India and Bangladesh.
• Expansion of upstream dams and possible diversion projects could heighten tensions and affect regional water security.

India–China Cooperation

• Expert Level Mechanism (2006)
• India and China established the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) in 2006.
• It provides a platform for annual discussions on flood-season hydrological data and transboundary river issues.
• Brahmaputra Data Sharing
• Hydrological information from three Tibetan stations is shared during the June–October flood season.
• The arrangement expired in 2023, and its renewal is under discussion.
• Sutlej Data Sharing
• India and China also have an arrangement for sharing Sutlej River hydrological data during June–October.
• This arrangement expired in 2020.
• Umbrella MoU (2013)
• The 2013 Umbrella Memorandum of Understanding provides a broader framework for cooperation on transboundary rivers.
• It also expanded the framework for hydrological data sharing between the two countries.

Way Forward for India

• Strengthen India’s Response

India should adopt a comprehensive approach focusing on:

• Real-time hydrological data sharing with upstream and downstream countries.
• Joint disaster-warning and early-warning mechanisms.
• Regular seismic assessments of the Himalayan region.
• Comprehensive environmental impact and dam-safety assessments.
• Sustained diplomatic engagement with China.
• Greater emphasis on basin-level cooperation for transboundary water management.
• Demand Greater Transparency
• India should seek greater transparency from China regarding:
  • Technical specifications of the project.
  • Environmental assessments.
  • Dam-safety arrangements.
  • Hydrological and operational details.
• Strengthen Regional Cooperation
• India should work with Bangladesh and other downstream stakeholders to develop:
  • Hydrological data-sharing mechanisms.
  • Joint environmental assessments.
  • Flood forecasting systems.
  • Disaster-preparedness and response mechanisms.
• Greater regional cooperation can help reduce mistrust and promote shared management of transboundary water risks.

Conclusion

China’s Yarlung Zangbo mega-dam is simultaneously a major hydropower project, ecological concern and strategic challenge for the Himalayan region. Its location in a fragile and highly seismic environment, combined with the Brahmaputra’s transboundary character, makes transparency, scientific assessment, reliable hydrological data and regional cooperation essential. India should strengthen its own disaster preparedness while pursuing sustained diplomatic engagement and basin-level cooperation to safeguard its water, ecological and strategic interests.

Environment

2. Sea-level Rise is a Threat to Fundamental Human Rights: UN Report

Context: A recent UN Special Report, Challenges related to sea-level rise and ways and approaches to address it, has highlighted the growing threats posed by sea-level rise to:

• Infrastructure
• Human rights
• Livelihoods
• Cultural identity
• Statehood and sovereignty.

Scale and Drivers of the Crisis

• Global sea-level rise is primarily driven by:
  • Warming of ocean waters, which causes thermal expansion.
  • Melting of glaciers and ice sheets, which adds water to the oceans.
• In 2024, annual global sea-level rise reached approximately 9 mm, the highest level recorded.
• Around 770 million people, nearly 10% of the world’s population, live in coastal areas located less than five metres above the high-tide line and are therefore highly exposed to sea-level rise.
• Without urgent adaptation measures, up to 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050.

Unequal Regional Impacts

• Coastal Cities
• Major coastal cities such as Miami, New York and Guangzhou face substantial economic exposure.
• Coastal assets at risk are estimated at approximately $2–3.5 trillion.
• Damage to urban infrastructure, transport networks, housing and commercial assets can generate significant economic losses.
• South Asian Deltas
• Low-lying South Asian deltas face particularly severe human-displacement risks.
• More than 14 million people in Kolkata, Mumbai and Dhaka are identified as being at immediate risk of losing their homes because of permanent inundation.
• Human Rights and Cultural Identity

Sea-level rise threatens several fundamental human rights, including access to:

• Adequate housing
• Safe drinking water
• Sanitation
• Food
• Healthcare
• Education
• Coastal flooding and erosion can destroy or damage:
  • Homes
  • Schools
  • Hospitals
  • Agricultural land
• Saltwater intrusion can contaminate freshwater sources and agricultural soils.
• Damage to sanitation infrastructure can increase exposure to water-borne diseases.
• Consequently, sea-level rise can undermine not only physical and economic security but also basic human dignity and well-being.
• Small Island Developing States and Vulnerable Communities
• Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Indigenous Peoples and low-lying coastal communities face disproportionately high risks.
• For Indigenous communities, the permanent loss of ancestral lands can result in:
  • Loss of cultural identity
  • Disruption of spiritual connections with land
  • Loss of traditional practices
  • Breakdown in intergenerational transmission of traditional knowledge
• Therefore, climate-induced displacement should be understood not merely as an economic problem, but also as a human-rights and cultural-identity challenge.

Economic and Legal Challenges

• Economic Costs
• Damage to coastal infrastructure is already estimated at more than $1.8 trillion.
• Without adequate adaptation, annual global economic losses could reach approximately $1.2–4 trillion by the end of the century.
• The burden will be particularly severe for developing countries with limited financial and technological capacity.
• Legal and Sovereignty Issues
• Permanent sea-level rise creates unprecedented legal questions relating to:
  • Statehood
  • Sovereignty
  • Nationality
  • Maritime boundaries
• These concerns are especially significant for small island states that may face permanent loss of habitable territory.
• Territorial loss raises difficult questions about the continuity of states, citizenship and maritime entitlements.

Rise of Sea Level in India

• Current Trend
• India’s sea level is gradually increasing as a consequence of climate change.
• The principal global drivers are:
  • Ocean warming and thermal expansion
  • Melting glaciers and ice sheets
• Long-term observations indicate an average sea-level rise along the Indian coast of approximately 3 mm per year, although the rate differs across regions.
• Relative sea-level rise can be considerably higher at particular locations because of:
  • Land subsidence
  • Groundwater extraction
  • Sediment compaction.
• Most Vulnerable Regions
• Major coastal cities such as Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai face increasing risks from:
  • Coastal flooding
  • Storm surges
  • Coastal erosion.
• The Sundarbans and the Ganga–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta are particularly vulnerable because of their:
  • Low elevation
  • High population exposure
  • Sensitivity to flooding and salinity.
• Small islands, including parts of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep, face heightened exposure to sea-level rise and associated coastal hazards.

Government/Policy Response

• National Centre for Coastal Research (NCCR)
• Monitors shoreline changes and coastal vulnerability.
• Its assessments can support evidence-based coastal planning and adaptation.
• INCOIS
• The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) provides:
  • Ocean information
  • Forecasting services
  • Early-warning systems
• These capabilities help improve preparedness for coastal and marine hazards.
• Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Framework
• The CRZ framework regulates development along environmentally sensitive coastal areas.
• It seeks to balance coastal development with environmental protection and disaster-risk reduction.
• NDMA and State Disaster Management Agencies
• The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and state-level agencies undertake measures related to:
  • Cyclone preparedness
  • Evacuation
  • Disaster response
  • Resilient infrastructure.
• Mangrove Restoration and Nature-Based Solutions
• Mangroves and other nature-based solutions can act as natural buffers against:
  • Storm surges
  • Coastal erosion
• Ecosystem restoration can therefore provide both climate adaptation and biodiversity benefits.

Way Forward

Effective adaptation to sea-level rise requires a combination of scientific, financial, technological and community-centred measures.

• Early Action and Scientific Assessment
• Strengthen long-term monitoring of:
  • Sea-level trends
  • Coastal erosion
  • Land subsidence
  • Salinity intrusion.
• Adaptation planning should be based on reliable scientific assessments and future climate projections.
• Early-Warning Systems and Resilient Infrastructure
• Expand effective early-warning systems for coastal flooding and extreme weather.
• Critical infrastructure such as hospitals, transport networks, water systems and power infrastructure should incorporate future sea-level projections into their design.
• Accelerate Greenhouse-Gas Emission Reductions
• Adaptation alone cannot eliminate the underlying driver of long-term sea-level rise.
• Faster reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions are therefore essential to limit future warming and ocean expansion.
• Increase Climate-Adaptation Finance
• Developing countries face a major adaptation-finance deficit.
• Annual adaptation requirements are estimated at around $310–365 billion, while only approximately $26 billion in adaptation finance was available in 2023.
• Greater, predictable and accessible international climate finance is essential for vulnerable developing countries.
• Technology Transfer and International Cooperation
• Developing countries need improved access to:
  • Climate-resilient technologies
  • Coastal monitoring systems
  • Early-warning technologies
  • Adaptation expertise.
• International cooperation should address both finance and technology gaps.
• People-Centred and Human-Rights-Based Planning
• Adaptation policies should prioritise vulnerable populations rather than focusing only on physical infrastructure.
• Coastal planning should incorporate:
  • Livelihood protection
  • Housing security
  • Water and sanitation
  • Cultural heritage
  • Planned relocation where unavoidable.
• Communities facing displacement should have a meaningful role in decisions affecting their future.
• India-Specific Approach

For India, coastal planning should integrate:

• Disaster resilience
• Sustainable urbanisation
• Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Mangrove and wetland conservation
• Protection of vulnerable coastal communities
• Long-term planning for areas facing erosion, inundation and salinity intrusion.

Conclusion

Sea-level rise is no longer merely an environmental or economic concern; it is increasingly a human-rights, livelihood, cultural and governance challenge. Its impacts are highly unequal, with coastal communities, small island states and Indigenous populations facing disproportionate risks. India must therefore pursue a dual strategy of climate mitigation and climate adaptation, combining resilient infrastructure with nature-based solutions, scientific early-warning systems, adequate climate finance and people-centred planning. A sustainable response should ensure that climate adaptation protects not only coastlines and infrastructure but also human dignity, livelihoods and cultural identity.

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